2018 NFL projections: FPI's 1-32 ranking, odds for Super Bowl

Saturday,September 15, Concern for Eagles, Steelers? Sports bet review Saturday,September 15, The very idea of strength of schedule is exactly the reason why we ought to know that opponents' records aren't a good measure of their strength -- who knows how good the teams were that the opponents played, and so on, and so on NFL - Sep 17

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2018 FPI Unit Ratings

With the return of Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins look to bounce back from a lost season, the Dolphins feel like a middling team teetering on another rebuild. Late-season games against the Patriots, Jaguars, and Minnesota could determine their season. If everything goes as planned the New England Patriots will be able to make their patented late-season push. While still rebuilding the New York Jets are heading into their third consecutive losing season and eight consecutive years out of the playoffs, in other words, when do they start playing in ?

The AFC South has had trouble performing at the same level as the other divisions. With the returns of J. The Jacksonville Jaguars are predicted to become the AFC South Champions for a repeat of last season, the offense has been improved with the addition of Andrew Norwell and ranked as the fifth highest scoring of the season. With 4 going to the Green Bay Packers who supposedly have the toughest schedule this season on paper.

Tough start to the season facing Green Pay and Seattle, but their schedule lightens up considerably starting Week 3 predicted record The Detroit Lions have taken under a new coaching staff under Matt Patricia, however, are still expected to deliver the same mediocre results Detroit has seen over the past few years.

The Lions still face too many holes in the offense the line and run game and far too many questions in their defensive line pass rush and interior line for them to be anything special this year, but the draft could change this predicted record Bank Stadium since it opened in predicted record The Dallas Cowboys have won the most Super Bowl titles with 5, however, their offseason has not been great with free-agent losses and the release of Dez Bryant. The New York Giants have a brutal seven-game stretch to open the season which will be tough to navigate.

The defending Champions return with 19 of 22 starters and will be fueled by a talented group of players coming off injury led by Wentz and Jason Peters who stress that Super Bowl hangover is not an option. The Eagles begin their title defense against the Atlanta Falcons , their schedule is no cake walk as they face seven teams that made the postseason last year.

To improve overall, the Redskins need better health for key young players to develop such as Josh Doctson , if these happen they could perform decently this season. The Atlanta Falcons have a tough start to the season facing the defending champions in Philidelphia. They turn around with back-to-back home games against the Panthers and Buccaneers, followed by another home game against the Bengals. The main focus for the Falcons seems to be the division race as they close the season at Carolina and Tampa Bay predicted record The two meet in Charlotte during Week 15 and then conclude the season in New Orleans in Week 17 , these games could be the difference between which team goes and predicted record for the Panthers.

Expectations remain high for the New Orleans Saints , as long as they can buck their trend of slow starts over the past four years. New Orleans must take advantage of their early schedule because their final 10 weeks are loaded with playoff contenders predicted record The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost seven games last season in a one-score game with five decided by three points or less in overtime.

With Jameis Winston healthy and improved chemistry with DeSean Jackson, and a fully revamped defensive line this draft could go a long way predicted record The West division has seen its fair share of Super Bowl experience, the division combines 13 Super Bowl appearances and a total of 7 Super Bowl Championships. They have stretches of difficulty in both halves of their season, with their late stretch containing; Green Bay, Atlanta, Los Angeles Rams, and the Seahawks.

It will be a tough finish to the season for Arizona predicated record Los Angeles Rams are looking great as they start their season with five prime-time games and 3 of out 4 of their first games at home. San Francisco 49ers have the buzz going for them due to their finish last season, which lots to prove the 49ers have a manageable schedule and one that is particularly team-friendly on the back end of the season.

With the Rams as a clear favorite to win the division, the Seattle Seahawks are not to be forgotten of what they have — such as Super Bowl winner Russell Wilson QB , all pro middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, and one of the best safety in the league Earl Thomas predicated record Tom Brady and Bill Belichick prove an amazing history with New England, making them one of the top three teams in the league. With their previous track record in the recent years, why would they not be one of the first predictions for Super Bowl 53?

The Defending Champions naturally have to be considered as one of the favorites to give the championship another run. But especially this year as the Eagles are returning with 19 of 22 starting players from their Championship season, and will once again have that depth in the quarterback position.

At this point, we can only assume that the Eagles regardless of which quarterback will play will find success between them. When you hear the word underrated think Minnesota. They have Dalvin Cook healthy returning to the backfield and are definitely being slept on right now by the community.

They have one of the most well-rounded teams in the league and are going to prove it to everyone. Rumor has it the Rams are building something special down in Los Angeles! The Rams are looking very good this year and are estimated to be one of the most valued teams in the league.

As seen in Super Bowl LII it is possible to build a winner without the star quarterback everyone expects, it just requires an infrastructure. Both teams benefited from a collection of dangerous pass catchers and the innovation of standout play-callers.

The Eagles shored up the corner spots by trading Darby and signing Patrick Robinson to a one-year deal, as well as picking up both Sidney Jones 43rd overall and Rasul Douglas 99th overall. No one would have guessed the Eagles success prior to the season, or have any clue on how much influence those picks would have towards the teams season.

Sunday,September 16, Sunday,September 16, 3: Saturday,September 15, Good lines normally comparable to other sites if not half point better usually , quick pay outs , no complaints. Though the model doesn't explicitly consider the substantial acquisitions of non-quarterbacks such as Aqib Talib , Ndamukong Suh , Marcus Peters and Brandin Cooks and the departure of players like Trumaine Johnson , those changes are in some way reflected in the team's Vegas win total.

If the betting market believes a team improved over the offseason, the increase in rating is distributed to each side of the ball based on what it already knows about that team's strengths and weaknesses. Because the FPI remains somewhat skeptical of Jared Goff -- the former Cal quarterback improved after a disastrous rookie campaign but still finished only 16th in Total QBR last year -- it makes the assumption that more of the improvement is coming on the defensive side of the ball.

All last season, the model thought the praise being heaped on the New Orleans defense was a bit overstated, though it is somewhat surprising to see the defense ranked this low.

Now, it still believes that the Broncos ' defense is excellent No. Because Keenum is a quarterback, he is specifically factored into the Broncos' rating, but nonetheless the model sees Denver as having the worst offense in the NFL. In addition, the model is slightly less confident in quarterbacks like Keenum, Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith this year because they switched teams in the offseason. Basic strength of schedule formulas based on wins and losses from the previous season really don't do the statistic justice.

The very idea of strength of schedule is exactly the reason why we ought to know that opponents' records aren't a good measure of their strength -- who knows how good the teams were that the opponents played, and so on, and so on The Packers have the toughest strength of schedule in the traditional calculation.

But their schedule is ranked only 25th in difficulty according to the FPI because they play teams like the Bills nine wins last year and the Cardinals eight , whom we expect to be much worse than their win totals a season ago.

After a winless campaign, the FPI has labeled the Browns as the most likely team to earn the No. Despite having Tyrod Taylor -- whom the model likes -- as their likely starter to begin the season, the Browns have a 14 percent chance to earn the top pick in the draft.

For Browns fans looking for some hope, there's this: That's because there's quite a bit of uncertainty about quarterbacks who have never taken a snap in the NFL, but it also means that if Mayfield plays and plays effectively, that projection can change in a hurry.

Of course, there's no guarantee that will happen. In the FPI's opinion, the Jets would be best off with Teddy Bridgewater starting under center, though it doesn't explicitly consider Bridgewater's injury. At one point this offseason, a Tom Brady retirement seemed at least plausible. Had Brady actually hung it up, would the Patriots have been the Super Bowl favorites that they are today?

Would they still win the AFC East? We ran the model in a world where Brady called it quits, and not only were the Patriots no longer the best team in football In the scenario, New England still had a 55 percent chance to win its division -- it helps to have just about the most feeble competition possible -- but only a 3 percent shot to win the Super Bowl down from 18 percent in actuality.

And that got us thinking, with FPI able to move quarterbacks around, what other alternative realities could we imagine? For example, staying in the AFC East They'd be better, that's for sure.

But according to the FPI: Don't get us wrong: Even with Cousins wearing green and white, the Jets would still be the 30th-ranked team and would have only a 16 percent chance to reach the playoffs up from 10 percent.

What if we know Carson Wentz is healthy to start the season? Or in Week 5? We'll sum it up like this: The difference in the Eagles' chances to win, in the model's mind, between Wentz and Nick Foles is generally about 4 percentage points per game. After all, we've seen that Foles is a capable fill-in. In Week 1, we give Philadelphia a 65 percent chance to beat Atlanta with Wentz under center and a 61 percent with Foles. But all those percentage points do add up: We would project over 10 wins with 16 games of Wentz, but 9.

How much better are the Colts with Andrew Luck than without him? The difference between him and Jacoby Brissett hovers around 11 percentage points per game. The Colts are about a seven-win team with Luck and just better than a five-win team with Brissett, so there's a real difference there.

Luck is held in high esteem by the FPI, but, similar to the aforementioned Jets scenario, he isn't the only part of the equation. In order for the Colts to be playoff contenders, they'll need more than just Luck's health to break in their favor. A season ago the Patriots and Steelers squared off in what many presumed would be a precursor to a playoff showdown between the two teams.

But we will get another game between New England and Pittsburgh -- in Week 15, no less -- this season. And according to our pregame matchup quality metric, which considers the quality of the two teams in the contest, that is the best game of the year. But in terms of playoff chances, Patriots-Steelers is not actually the most important game of the year.

For that, we can look at leverage -- the percentage chance to reach the playoffs each team can gain or lose depending on the result. And if we look at that, we get a whole different set of games with high stakes to look forward to in the upcoming year. To help make this website better, to improve and personalize your experience and for advertising purposes, are you happy to accept cookies and other technologies?

Week 2 takeaways for every team: Concern for Eagles, Steelers? Roughing passer flags 'out of control' Green Bay Packers.