No. 3: Tournament peformance
Duke and North Carolina take care of business at No. North Carolina reached the Final Four or better nine out of 13 times. Duke reached the Final Four seven out of 13 times as a No.
The Jayhawks have three Final Four appearances as a No. That includes three second-round losses. SN measured the difference in the points expected from a school as a No. Kentucky has reached the Elite Eight or better five of six times as a No. The Jayhawks over-perform as a No.
Kansas lost in the national championship game in and as a No. SN measured the number of appearances as a No. We put that performance into a percentage. North Carolina is the most-reliable No.
Kansas has under-performed in 60 percent of those tournaments as a No. Kansas has a reputation as a powerhouse that will bust your bracket because you lose points more often than you gain when they are a No. SN looked through every tournament bracket since and awarded points for victories by seed on a scale a win against a No. Schools were also docked points by seed on the same scale, but you lose points by the number a lost to a No.
We then averaged those points by appearance as a No. North Carolina and Kentucky again are the top performers as No. Duke scored the most points by this system, but the Blue Devils have three second-round exits and a first-round exit. The Jayhawks don't have a first-round exit, but they've failed to advance past the Sweet 16 nine out of 20 times as either a No. We used the same seed-based scoring formula but applied to tournaments since Kansas is the only school who has been either a No. Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke have almost doubled Kansas' production despite fewer appearances as either a No.
The Jayhawks have averaged just 9. Are we being unfair to Kansas? After all, Arizona is ranked lower in three of the six tables above. The Wildcats have never won the national championship as a No. To get there, Wichita State better prepare to slow down its first opponent, then avoid getting sped up by its likely second. This might seem like a stretch. More people are griping about them being seeded too highly at No.
That draft pick is Collin Sexton, who is averaging Either of their potential opponents, who will play Thursday in Dayton, present potentially difficult matchups. UCLA is an uptempo team that can shoot the three-ball well and is led by a guard, Aaron Holiday, who just put up point games on consecutive nights in the Pac tournament.
Bonaventure has its own potential big-game scorer in senior Jaylen Adams Still, the Wildcats are too good in general and playing too well now to see them failing to reach at least the Elite Eight. In a squeaker, that gives us a No. But frankly, Villanova is the No. A year after another first-weekend flameout, the Wildcats live up to their seeding and head to San Antonio.
The Midwest is headlined by a program that knows a thing or two about being a No. This marks the eighth time in 12 seasons, as well as the third consecutive season, that the Jayhawks earned a spot on the top line.
This region has something for everyone: Kansas will cruise into the NCAAs following its second Big 12 tournament title in three years—before that, the Jayhawks won a record-setting 14th consecutive regular season conference title. In the league tournament, they beat Oklahoma State by 14 points only five days after the Cowboys took down Kansas in Stillwater, then handled in-state rival Kansas State in the semis and West Virginia in the finals. The Sooners got off to a really promising start this season, winning 12 of their first 13 games and rising as high as No.
But they had a rough time navigating the rigorous Big Oklahoma posted an record against league competition and at one point dropped six games in a row. Young is in the closing stretch of an awesome freshman campaign, but Graham was better than him against Big 12 competition. If Kansas is seriously tested before the second weekend, trust that Graham will lead it to safety.
In Jared Terrell, the Rams have a first-team all-Atlantic 10 guard who can strain defenses by knocking down three-point shots, getting to the free-throw line and converting his attempts once there at a favorable rate. And at full strength, fellow senior E. Matthews gives Rhode Island another dangerous perimeter scorer.
The Rams are going to have their hands full trying to contain Young, but Oklahoma also has to reckon with a big defensive challenge. This might be the best team Tigers head coach Brad Brownell has had since he took over the program prior to the season. That said, Clemson could be in danger of being sent home in the first round.
The Aggies upended Miami on Dec. The West contains the most vulnerable-looking No. This feels wide open. To get to the Sweet 16, they could face a tall, athletic Missouri team that shoots the three well, holds tough defensively and returns Michael Porter Jr. Ohio State was just a hair behind at No. Your best bet as a prognosticator is to disregard the seeding and focus on the data.
Nothing about this looks simple. OK, so the Bulldogs are not a real underdog. In all likelihood, the Zags will be the only regional finalist in the West that actually plays on said coast.
The Bulldogs are also headed to a favorable early site in Boise. Ohio State is plenty tough, but remember that Gonzaga topped them by 27 points at the PK80 in November. And if they can get past a vulnerable Xavier team from there, a title game rematch against North Carolina should be primo viewing. If he comes remotely close to his usual self, the gifted freshman scorer could be the key to a surprise run for the Tigers, who could make life pretty tough for Xavier in a potential Sweet 16 tilt.
South Dakota State is the small school most likely to make some first-round noise in this region. The Jackrabbits are dancing for the third straight year and will be playing relatively close to home in Boise. Led by efficient, versatile junior big Mike Daum— They have the experience and chops to keep up with the Buckeyes, who will counter with a talent of their own, Big Ten Player of the Year Keita Bates-Diop The Tar Heels had everything clicking at the ACC tournament with a selfless, entertaining brand of ball, relying on a variety of scorers and an experienced starting five that moves the ball and makes hustle plays.
Please enter your email address associated with the account so we can help reset your password. Stay up-to-date with the latest news and scores from your favorite teams anywhere and get customized notifications, special offers and much more.
Add more favorite teams from the list below based on your geolocation.