Pricing Betting Totals
The number in the middle is your median, and you can use that number in conjunction with the league average to find your estimated points scored in a game. The problem here is that this model is far too simplistic to yield long-term profits.
No matter how simple the sport, you'll need to make other adjustments. Of course, if handicapping totals were easy then the market would dry up and there would be no profit left. So, if you're ambitious, the fact that they are hard can be an advantage for you. Rather than learning how to price totals, a good strategy for the ambitious beginner is learning predictive modeling.
There's a good article on this in the book shown here, Conquering Risk: This book can be purchased on Amazon. It's the perfect read for those interested in advanced fundamentals.
Now for those who don't want to wait for the book, we continue with more helpful advice on total betting. When projecting betting totals, it's important to understand key numbers. For example, in NFL football, the most common total points scored, in order, are as follows. Knowing this we'd be far more likely to bet over 41 when our model predicted While 40 is still a rather common outcome, 39 and 38 are very low probability totals. Over 41 gives us a push on the most common outcome and a win on the second and fourth most common outcomes.
With the information just given, there's a relatively straightforward way to profit from betting NFL totals. The goal is to take advantage of sports betting bonuses and off market prices simultaneously. What you need to understand is, as mentioned in our article on how to handicap the market , there's two distinct types of sports betting sites.
Sharp books, which are betting sites friendly to professionals, and square books, which are betting sites that target recreational bettors. It's also important to understand fan bias. NFL fans typically prefer to bet in favor of something happening rather than against something happening. In other words, betting the over is a lot more fun than betting the under. This leads to recreational betting sites often padding the total an extra 0. Recreational sites often have total disregard, or might even be unaware of, the implication of key numbers.
Remember the most common total points scored in NFL games we mentioned earlier? You'd quickly see that the under bet at When you're lucky enough to find a near neutral EV bet while also having a bonus, chances are high that you'll be able to make considerable profits by betting totals. Please see our article on sports betting bonuses and rewards for more information on the extra value you can get at online betting sites.
One way to gain maximum value when total betting is to consider if there's a correlation between the total bet you're making and a game's point spread. Now, if the Steelers are When this is the case, we suggest betting the point spread and the total together in a parlay bet.
To state what to many is probably obvious, in certain sports, even and odd number totals make a huge difference. This relates to low scoring sports such as baseball, hockey, and in certain cases soccer. Keep in mind that in baseball and hockey, if a game ends in a tie, it keeps going until the tie is broken. Since ties always represent an even amount of points, it's clear to see why an odd total outcome is more likely to occur than an even total outcome.
While that is an opportunity when viewed in isolation I get very nervous when I see a line like that. The same thing, though to a lesser extent, can be said about lines of Key numbers are also important because once a line moves to a key number a book is very hesitant to move off of it. If, for example, a game opens at It will take far more action on the favorite than normal to force that line to move up another half point to 3. If you take the favorite when the line is at 2.
Books hate losing money, and middling is a sure way for them to do that. There are a couple of things to learn from that. First, if you get a chance to bet a middle on three do it. To compensate for their unwillingness to move the line the sportsbooks will adjust the juice — charging or in stead of to bet on the favorites. An understanding of key numbers can also fuel your decision making when it comes to the timing of your sports bet.
For example, if a game is at Those teasers were popularized a few years ago, and when you bet teasers with two or more games that fit the criteria it was found to be long term profitable. For years the sports handicappers at Maddux Sports have been making money for us and our clients betting the strongest sports picks on the Internet.
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